The 2024 election is shaping up to be ultra-competitive with national polls currently giving former President Donald Trump a 1.0% lead — for reference at this point in the 2020 campaign President Joe Biden was leading Trump by 9.5% and in 2016, Hillary Clinton had a 6.7% advantage.
As we all know, the nationwide popular vote will not determine the next President — it comes down to getting 270 electoral college votes. In 2024 (like 2016 and 2020) the outcome of the presidential race will likely come down to 7 swing-states. In fact, 5 of the 7 states listed below switched from Trump to Biden in 2020, accounting for Biden’s margin of victory. Currently (June 26, 2024) Trump leads in 6 states and the race is tied in the 7th, but the margins remain very close. There is a lot of campaigning to do before November — so expect shifts in the coming months.
Below is a breakdown of each state’s voting history and what to watch for as the election progresses.
No GOP Presidential candidate has ever won the presidency without winning AZ and since 1952, only 2 Democratic Presidential candidates have won Arizona (Clinton 1996 and Biden 2020). Recent trends in Arizona have Democrats doing better statewide with wins in both Senate seats and the Governor’s office since 2018.
Like Arizona, Georgia provided a very narrow win for Joe Biden in 2020 — but the GOP candidates have won 8 of the last 10 races (including Trump in 2016 by 5.5%). Trump has lagged in Georgia, and many feel he played a role in losing both Senate seat run-offs in 2020. Georgia voters now favor Trump by a margin of 4.0% according to RCP average — hard to tell if this change in voter preference is buyer’s remorse on Biden or if Trump has righted the ship (or a combination of both).
Two interesting tidbits on Nevada is that it has voted for the winning Presidential candidate in 26 of the last 28 elections and that since 1912 and the state has picked the same Presidential candidate as New Mexico in all but 1 election. Trump lost here in both of the last 2 elections — but early polling has him up.
Pennsylvania is a true swing state — voting for the Republican candidate 26 times and for the Democratic candidate 20 times. Pennsylvania is currently tied with Michigan and Wisconsin (two other states on this list) for the longest active streak voting for the winning candidate. Trump won here in 2016 and Biden in 2020. Polls in this state have gone back and forth — but no candidate has been able to get out of the margin of error — expect this to remain true until election day.
In 2016, Trump was the first Republican to win Wisconsin since Ronald Reagan — but keeping with its swing state moniker only Barack Obama and Mike Dukakis got over 50% of the vote in the last 40 years. The results in the last two election have been razor thin — Trump’s margin of victory was 0.77% in 2016 and Biden won by just 0.62% in 2020. This looks like another barnburner, with Trump and Biden currently polling neck and neck.
Similar to Wisconsin, Michigan has voted for the Democratic nominee is 7 of the last 8 elections with Trump winning in 2016 by 10,704 votes statewide or roughly 2 votes per precinct. In 2020, Michigan got back to its Democratic roots — giving Biden a 2.75% victory. The RCP average has Trump with a 0.2% lead in the state — but this is likely to go back and forth until November.
Since 1980, only Barack Obama in 2008 put North Carolina in the Democrats column. Trump won here in 2016 by 3.7%, but only by 1.3 %in 2020. Current polling has Trump leading by a 5.8% — will North Carolina stick to its history or will Trump’s trendline continue in a negative direction.
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